| Line 507: | Line 507: | ||
*Currently, Congress is considering doubling the cigarette excise tax (to $2.01 per pack) and setting the ENDS tax to parity with the new cigarette tax (Durbin 2021). This tax, if adopted, would imply a roughly $2.01 tax per 0.7 fluid mL of nicotine, assuming a Juul pod is equivalent to a pack of cigarettes (Truth Initiative 2019), or $2.87 per fluid mL. Our MTF results suggest that this would reduce youth current ENDS use by 5.5 pp but raise current cigarette use by 3.7 pp, assuming that the cigarette tax portion of the bill has no effect as suggested by the small, statistically insignificant cigarette tax effects estimated in this paper, and other recent studies (Hansen, Sabia, and Rees 2017). The YRBSS results meanwhile suggest much larger reductions in youth current ENDS use, but a sizable increase in youth current cigarette use of 2.3 pp. If ENDS are substantially safer products as suggested by several major government-commissioned reviews (McNeill et al. 2018; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2018; UK Committee on Toxicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and the Environment 2020), our results suggest that the proposed bill may harm youth health in the United States | *Currently, Congress is considering doubling the cigarette excise tax (to $2.01 per pack) and setting the ENDS tax to parity with the new cigarette tax (Durbin 2021). This tax, if adopted, would imply a roughly $2.01 tax per 0.7 fluid mL of nicotine, assuming a Juul pod is equivalent to a pack of cigarettes (Truth Initiative 2019), or $2.87 per fluid mL. Our MTF results suggest that this would reduce youth current ENDS use by 5.5 pp but raise current cigarette use by 3.7 pp, assuming that the cigarette tax portion of the bill has no effect as suggested by the small, statistically insignificant cigarette tax effects estimated in this paper, and other recent studies (Hansen, Sabia, and Rees 2017). The YRBSS results meanwhile suggest much larger reductions in youth current ENDS use, but a sizable increase in youth current cigarette use of 2.3 pp. If ENDS are substantially safer products as suggested by several major government-commissioned reviews (McNeill et al. 2018; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine 2018; UK Committee on Toxicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and the Environment 2020), our results suggest that the proposed bill may harm youth health in the United States | ||
*[https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29216/w29216.pdf PDF Version] | *[https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w29216/w29216.pdf PDF Version] | ||
===2021 (Op-Ed): [https://filtermag.org/vape-taxes-increase-smoking/ To Increase Smoking Rates Among Young Adults, Keep Hiking Vape Taxes]=== | |||
*Of eight states that had e-cigarette taxes prior to 2019, seven saw an increase in proportions of young adult smokers after their state e-cigarette tax went into effect. California had a 34 percent increase in people aged 18-24 who smoked after the passage of an e-cigarette tax. Deleware's increase was 48.6 percent. Pennsylvania passed a 40% wholesale tax on vapor products, which closed 1/3 of the vape shops in that state and increased smoking in the 18-24 year old age group by 19 percent. Kansas, Louisiana, Minnesota and West Virginia also say increases in smoking in young adults after passing taxes on vapor products. | |||
===2021 (Revision): [https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26724/w26724.pdf The Effects of E-Cigarette Taxes on E-Cigarette Prices and Tobacco Product Sales: Evidence from Retail Panel Data]=== | ===2021 (Revision): [https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w26724/w26724.pdf The Effects of E-Cigarette Taxes on E-Cigarette Prices and Tobacco Product Sales: Evidence from Retail Panel Data]=== | ||
edits