Weather forecasting: Difference between revisions
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===Ancient forecasting=== | ===Ancient forecasting=== | ||
For millennia, people have tried to forecast the weather. In 650 BC, the [[Babylonia]]ns predicted the weather from cloud patterns as well as [[astrology]]. In about 350 BC, [[Aristotle]] described weather patterns in ''[[Meteorology (Aristotle)|Meteorologica]]''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://teachersinstitute.yale.edu/curriculum/units/1994/5/94.05.01.x.html|title=94.05.01: Meteorology|website=teachersinstitute.yale.edu|access-date=January 14, 2020}}</ref> Later, [[Theophrastus]] compiled a book on weather forecasting, called the ''Book of Signs''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.infoplease.com/math-science/weather/weather-forecasting-from-the-beginning|title=Weather: Forecasting from the Beginning|website=InfoPlease|access-date=January 14, 2020}}</ref> Chinese weather prediction lore extends at least as far back as 300 BC,<ref>[[University of California]] Museum of Paleontology. [http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/history/aristotle.html "Aristotle (384-322 B.C.E.)] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161120124920/http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/history/aristotle.html |date=November 20, 2016 }}". Retrieved January 12, 2008.</ref> which was also around the same time ancient [[Indian astronomy|Indian astronomers]] developed weather-prediction methods.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Indian and Pseudo-indian Passages in Greek and Latin Astronomical and Astrological Texts|author=David Pingree|pages=141–195 [143–4]|url=http://brepols.metapress.com/content/6861608670636388/fulltext.pdf|access-date=March 1, 2010|date=December 14, 2017|author-link=David Pingree}}{{dead link|date=January 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref> In [[New Testament]] times, Jesus himself referred to deciphering and understanding local weather patterns, by saying, "When evening comes, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red', and in the morning, 'Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.' You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+16:2-3&version=ESV|title=Bible Gateway passage: Matthew 16:2–3 – English Standard Version|website=Bible Gateway|access-date=December 1, 2016}}</ref> | For millennia, people have tried to forecast the weather. In 650 BC, the [[Babylonia]]ns predicted the weather from cloud patterns as well as [[astrology]]. In about 350 BC, [[Aristotle]] described weather patterns in ''[[Meteorology (Aristotle)|Meteorologica]]''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://teachersinstitute.yale.edu/curriculum/units/1994/5/94.05.01.x.html|title=94.05.01: Meteorology|website=teachersinstitute.yale.edu|access-date=January 14, 2020}}</ref> Later, [[Theophrastus]] compiled a book on weather forecasting, called the ''Book of Signs''.<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.infoplease.com/math-science/weather/weather-forecasting-from-the-beginning|title=Weather: Forecasting from the Beginning|website=InfoPlease|access-date=January 14, 2020}}</ref> Chinese weather prediction lore extends at least as far back as 300 BC,<ref>[[University of California]] Museum of Paleontology. [http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/history/aristotle.html "Aristotle (384-322 B.C.E.)] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20161120124920/http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/history/aristotle.html|date=November 20, 2016}}". Retrieved January 12, 2008.</ref> which was also around the same time ancient [[Indian astronomy|Indian astronomers]] developed weather-prediction methods.<ref>{{cite web|title=The Indian and Pseudo-indian Passages in Greek and Latin Astronomical and Astrological Texts|author=David Pingree|pages=141–195 [143–4]|url=http://brepols.metapress.com/content/6861608670636388/fulltext.pdf|access-date=March 1, 2010|date=December 14, 2017|author-link=David Pingree}}{{dead link|date=January 2018 |bot=InternetArchiveBot |fix-attempted=yes }}</ref> In [[New Testament]] times, Jesus himself referred to deciphering and understanding local weather patterns, by saying, "When evening comes, you say, 'It will be fair weather, for the sky is red', and in the morning, 'Today it will be stormy, for the sky is red and overcast.' You know how to interpret the appearance of the sky, but you cannot interpret the signs of the times."<ref>{{Cite web|url=https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Matthew+16:2-3&version=ESV|title=Bible Gateway passage: Matthew 16:2–3 – English Standard Version|website=Bible Gateway|access-date=December 1, 2016}}</ref> | ||
In 904 AD, [[Ibn Wahshiyya]]'s ''[[Nabatean Agriculture]]'', translated into Arabic from an earlier [[Aramaic]] work,<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Carrara|first1=A.A|title=Geoponica and Nabatean Agriculture: A New Approach into Their Sources and Authorship|journal=Arabic Sciences and Philosophy|volume=16|issue=1|pages=123–130|doi=10.1017/s0957423906000245|year=2006|s2cid=170931904}}</ref> discussed the weather forecasting of atmospheric changes and signs from the planetary astral alterations; signs of rain based on observation of the [[lunar phase]]s; and weather forecasts based on the movement of winds.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Fahd|first=Toufic|page=842|title=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science}}, in {{Cite book |last1=Rashed |first1=Roshdi |last2=Morelon |first2=Régis |year=1996 |title=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science |volume=3 |publisher=[[Routledge]] |isbn=978-0-415-12410-2 |pages=813–852|title-link=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science }}</ref> | In 904 AD, [[Ibn Wahshiyya]]'s ''[[Nabatean Agriculture]]'', translated into Arabic from an earlier [[Aramaic]] work,<ref>{{cite journal|last1=Carrara|first1=A.A|title=Geoponica and Nabatean Agriculture: A New Approach into Their Sources and Authorship|journal=Arabic Sciences and Philosophy|volume=16|issue=1|pages=123–130|doi=10.1017/s0957423906000245|year=2006|s2cid=170931904}}</ref> discussed the weather forecasting of atmospheric changes and signs from the planetary astral alterations; signs of rain based on observation of the [[lunar phase]]s; and weather forecasts based on the movement of winds.<ref>{{Cite journal|last=Fahd|first=Toufic|page=842|title=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science}}, in {{Cite book |last1=Rashed |first1=Roshdi |last2=Morelon |first2=Régis |year=1996 |title=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science |volume=3 |publisher=[[Routledge]] |isbn=978-0-415-12410-2 |pages=813–852|title-link=Encyclopedia of the History of Arabic Science }}</ref> | ||
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[[File:BBC television weather chart - 1936-11-13.jpg|thumb|BBC television weather chart for November 13, 1936]] | [[File:BBC television weather chart - 1936-11-13.jpg|thumb|BBC television weather chart for November 13, 1936]] | ||
The world's first [[Live television|televised]] weather forecasts, including the use of weather maps, were experimentally broadcast by the [[BBC]] in November 1936.<ref name="BBC-60154358">{{cite news |title=BBC Centenary: BBC Weather's most memorable moments - BBC Weather |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/60154358 |access-date=February 12, 2022}}</ref> This was brought into practice in 1949, after [[World War II]].<ref name="BBC-60154358" /> [[George Cowling]] gave the first weather forecast while being televised in front of the map in 1954.<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/about/newsid_7833000/7833282.stm |title=BBC – Weather – A history of TV weather forecasts|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130102193118/http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/about/newsid_7833000/7833282.stm|website=BBC Weather|archive-date=January 2, 2013}}</ref><ref name="HUNT">{{cite journal|doi=10.1002/wea.81|title=The end of weather forecasting at Met Office London|journal=Weather|volume=62|issue=6|pages=143–146|year=2007|last1=Hunt|first1=Roger|bibcode=2007Wthr...62..143H|doi-access=free}}</ref> In America, experimental television forecasts were made by [[James C. Fidler]] in Cincinnati in either 1940 or 1947{{what?|date=January 2023}} on the [[DuMont Television Network]].<ref name="cyc" /><ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.usatoday.com/weather/wforund.htm | title=Answers: Understanding weather forecasts | date=February 8, 2006 | work=USA Today | access-date=September 18, 2017 | archive-date=August 13, 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120813060637/http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wforund.htm | url-status=dead }}</ref> In the late 1970s and early 1980s, [[John Coleman (news weathercaster)|John Coleman]], the first weatherman for the [[American Broadcasting Company]] (ABC)'s ''[[Good Morning America]]'', pioneered the use of on-screen [[weather satellite]] data and [[computer graphics]] for television forecasts.<ref name=CJR>[https://www.cjr.org/behind_the_news/cjr_rewind_hot_air.php CJR Rewind: Hot Air], ''[[Columbia Journalism Review]]'', reprint, first published in the January/February 2010 issue.</ref> In 1982, Coleman partnered with [[Landmark Media Enterprises|Landmark Communications]] CEO [[Frank Batten]] to launch [[The Weather Channel]] (TWC), a 24-hour cable network devoted to national and local weather reports. Some weather channels have started broadcasting on [[Live broadcasting|live streaming platforms]] such as [[YouTube]] and [[Periscope (app)|Periscope]] to reach more viewers. | The world's first [[Live television|televised]] weather forecasts, including the use of weather maps, were experimentally broadcast by the [[BBC]] in November 1936.<ref name="BBC-60154358">{{cite news |title=BBC Centenary: BBC Weather's most memorable moments - BBC Weather |url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/60154358 |access-date=February 12, 2022}}</ref> This was brought into practice in 1949, after [[World War II]].<ref name="BBC-60154358" /> [[George Cowling]] gave the first weather forecast while being televised in front of the map in 1954.<ref>{{Cite news|url=http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/about/newsid_7833000/7833282.stm |title=BBC – Weather – A history of TV weather forecasts|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20130102193118/http://news.bbc.co.uk/weather/hi/about/newsid_7833000/7833282.stm|website=BBC Weather|archive-date=January 2, 2013}}</ref><ref name="HUNT">{{cite journal|doi=10.1002/wea.81|title=The end of weather forecasting at Met Office London|journal=Weather|volume=62|issue=6|pages=143–146|year=2007|last1=Hunt|first1=Roger|bibcode=2007Wthr...62..143H|doi-access=free}}</ref> In America, experimental television forecasts were made by [[James C. Fidler]] in Cincinnati in either 1940 or 1947{{what?|date=January 2023}} on the [[DuMont Television Network]].<ref name="cyc" /><ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.usatoday.com/weather/wforund.htm | title=Answers: Understanding weather forecasts | date=February 8, 2006 | work=USA Today | access-date=September 18, 2017 | archive-date=August 13, 2012 | archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120813060637/http://www.usatoday.com/weather/wforund.htm | url-status=dead }}</ref> In the late 1970s and early 1980s, [[John Coleman (news weathercaster)|John Coleman]], the first weatherman for the [[American Broadcasting Company]] (ABC)'s ''[[Good Morning America]]'', pioneered the use of on-screen [[weather satellite]] data and [[computer graphics]] for television forecasts.<ref name="CJR">[https://www.cjr.org/behind_the_news/cjr_rewind_hot_air.php CJR Rewind: Hot Air], ''[[Columbia Journalism Review]]'', reprint, first published in the January/February 2010 issue.</ref> In 1982, Coleman partnered with [[Landmark Media Enterprises|Landmark Communications]] CEO [[Frank Batten]] to launch [[The Weather Channel]] (TWC), a 24-hour cable network devoted to national and local weather reports. Some weather channels have started broadcasting on [[Live broadcasting|live streaming platforms]] such as [[YouTube]] and [[Periscope (app)|Periscope]] to reach more viewers. | ||
== How models create forecasts == | == How models create forecasts == | ||
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{{Main|Numerical weather prediction}} | {{Main|Numerical weather prediction}} | ||
The basic idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of [[fluid dynamics]] and [[thermodynamics]] to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future. The main inputs from country-based weather services are surface observations from automated [[weather station]]s at ground level over land and from weather buoys at sea. The [[World Meteorological Organization]] acts to standardize the instrumentation, observing practices and timing of these observations worldwide. Stations either report hourly in [[METAR]] reports,<ref>[[National Climatic Data Center]]. [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/conversion/swometardecoder.html "Key to METAR Surface Weather Observations"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021101221848/http://www0.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/conversion/swometardecoder.html |date=November 1, 2002 }}. Retrieved March 9, 2008.</ref> or every six hours in [[SYNOP]] reports.<ref>[[UNISYS]]. [http://weather.unisys.com/wxp/Appendices/Formats/SYNOP.html "SYNOP Data Format (FM-12): Surface Synoptic Observations"]. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071230100059/http://weather.unisys.com/wxp/Appendices/Formats/SYNOP.html |date=December 30, 2007 }} Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> Sites launch [[radiosonde]]s, which rise through the depth of the [[troposphere]] and well into the [[stratosphere]].<ref>Gaffen, Dian J. (June 7, 2007). [https://web.archive.org/web/20070607142822/http://www.aero.jussieu.fr/~sparc/News12/Radiosondes.html "Radiosonde Observations and Their Use in SPARC-Related Investigations"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> Data from [[weather satellite]]s are used in areas where traditional data sources are not available.<ref>[[NASA]]. [http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html "Interactive Global Composite Weather Satellite Images"] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080531175530/http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html |date=May 31, 2008 }}. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref><ref>[[NOAA]]. [http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html Goes Eastern US Sector Infrared Image]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref><ref>[[Met Office]]. [https://archive.today/20070705213142/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/nwp/satellite/ "Satellite applications"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> Compared with similar data from radiosondes, the satellite data has the advantage of global coverage, but at a lower accuracy and resolution.<ref>Tony Reale. [http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/itwg/itsc/itsc12/presentations/1a4_T.Reale.ppt "ATOVS Sounding Products (ITSVC-12)"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> [[Weather radar|Meteorological radar]] provide information on precipitation location and intensity, which can be used to estimate precipitation accumulations over time.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.csu.edu.au/special/bushfire99/papers/treloar/|date=July 1999|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090607174157/http://www.csu.edu.au/special/bushfire99/papers/treloar/|archive-date=June 7, 2009|title=The use of accumulated rainfall maps from weather radar systems to assist wildfire detection reconnaissance|author=Andrew Treloar and Peter Brookhouse|url-status=dead}}</ref> Additionally, if a [[Pulse-Doppler radar|pulse Doppler]] [[weather radar]] is used then wind speed and direction can be determined.<ref>University of Washington. [http://www.artsci.washington.edu/news/WinterSpring03/Forecast.htm "An improving forecast"]. Retrieved April 15, 2007 {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071024112614/http://www.artsci.washington.edu/news/WinterSpring03/Forecast.htm |date=October 24, 2007 }}</ref> These methods, however, leave an in-situ observational gap in the lower atmosphere (from 100 m to 6 km above ground level). To reduce this gap, in the late 1990s [[weather drone]]s started to be considered for obtaining data from those altitudes. Research has been growing significantly since the 2010s, and weather-drone data may in future be added to numerical weather models.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Pinto |first1=James O. |last2=O’Sullivan |first2=Debbie |last3=Taylor |first3=Stewart |last4=Elston |first4=Jack |last5=Baker |first5=C. B. |last6=Hotz |first6=David |last7=Marshall |first7=Curtis |last8=Jacob |first8=Jamey |last9=Barfuss |first9=Konrad |last10=Piguet |first10=Bruno |last11=Roberts |first11=Greg |last12=Omanovic |first12=Nadja |last13=Fengler |first13=Martin |last14=Jensen |first14=Anders A. |last15=Steiner |first15=Matthias |date=November 1, 2021 |title=The Status and Future of Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) in Operational Meteorology |journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |language=EN |volume=102 |issue=11 |pages=E2121–E2136 |doi=10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0138.1 |bibcode=2021BAMS..102E2121P |s2cid=237750279 |issn=0003-0007|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=November 14, 2022 |title=Workshop on Use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) for Operational Meteorology |url=https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=9951 |url-status=live |access-date=November 14, 2022 |website=World Meteorological Organization}}</ref> | The basic idea of numerical weather prediction is to sample the state of the fluid at a given time and use the equations of [[fluid dynamics]] and [[thermodynamics]] to estimate the state of the fluid at some time in the future. The main inputs from country-based weather services are surface observations from automated [[weather station]]s at ground level over land and from weather buoys at sea. The [[World Meteorological Organization]] acts to standardize the instrumentation, observing practices and timing of these observations worldwide. Stations either report hourly in [[METAR]] reports,<ref>[[National Climatic Data Center]]. [http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/conversion/swometardecoder.html "Key to METAR Surface Weather Observations"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20021101221848/http://www0.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/conversion/swometardecoder.html|date=November 1, 2002}}. Retrieved March 9, 2008.</ref> or every six hours in [[SYNOP]] reports.<ref>[[UNISYS]]. [http://weather.unisys.com/wxp/Appendices/Formats/SYNOP.html "SYNOP Data Format (FM-12): Surface Synoptic Observations"]. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071230100059/http://weather.unisys.com/wxp/Appendices/Formats/SYNOP.html|date=December 30, 2007}} Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> Sites launch [[radiosonde]]s, which rise through the depth of the [[troposphere]] and well into the [[stratosphere]].<ref>Gaffen, Dian J. (June 7, 2007). [https://web.archive.org/web/20070607142822/http://www.aero.jussieu.fr/~sparc/News12/Radiosondes.html "Radiosonde Observations and Their Use in SPARC-Related Investigations"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> Data from [[weather satellite]]s are used in areas where traditional data sources are not available.<ref>[[NASA]]. [http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html "Interactive Global Composite Weather Satellite Images"] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080531175530/http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/globalir.html|date=May 31, 2008}}. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref><ref>[[NOAA]]. [http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html Goes Eastern US Sector Infrared Image]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref><ref>[[Met Office]]. [https://archive.today/20070705213142/http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/nwp/satellite/ "Satellite applications"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> Compared with similar data from radiosondes, the satellite data has the advantage of global coverage, but at a lower accuracy and resolution.<ref>Tony Reale. [http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/itwg/itsc/itsc12/presentations/1a4_T.Reale.ppt "ATOVS Sounding Products (ITSVC-12)"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> [[Weather radar|Meteorological radar]] provide information on precipitation location and intensity, which can be used to estimate precipitation accumulations over time.<ref>{{Cite web|url=http://www.csu.edu.au/special/bushfire99/papers/treloar/|date=July 1999|archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090607174157/http://www.csu.edu.au/special/bushfire99/papers/treloar/|archive-date=June 7, 2009|title=The use of accumulated rainfall maps from weather radar systems to assist wildfire detection reconnaissance|author=Andrew Treloar and Peter Brookhouse|url-status=dead}}</ref> Additionally, if a [[Pulse-Doppler radar|pulse Doppler]] [[weather radar]] is used then wind speed and direction can be determined.<ref>University of Washington. [http://www.artsci.washington.edu/news/WinterSpring03/Forecast.htm "An improving forecast"]. Retrieved April 15, 2007 {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20071024112614/http://www.artsci.washington.edu/news/WinterSpring03/Forecast.htm |date=October 24, 2007 }}</ref> These methods, however, leave an in-situ observational gap in the lower atmosphere (from 100 m to 6 km above ground level). To reduce this gap, in the late 1990s [[weather drone]]s started to be considered for obtaining data from those altitudes. Research has been growing significantly since the 2010s, and weather-drone data may in future be added to numerical weather models.<ref>{{Cite journal |last1=Pinto |first1=James O. |last2=O’Sullivan |first2=Debbie |last3=Taylor |first3=Stewart |last4=Elston |first4=Jack |last5=Baker |first5=C. B. |last6=Hotz |first6=David |last7=Marshall |first7=Curtis |last8=Jacob |first8=Jamey |last9=Barfuss |first9=Konrad |last10=Piguet |first10=Bruno |last11=Roberts |first11=Greg |last12=Omanovic |first12=Nadja |last13=Fengler |first13=Martin |last14=Jensen |first14=Anders A. |last15=Steiner |first15=Matthias |date=November 1, 2021 |title=The Status and Future of Small Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) in Operational Meteorology |journal=Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society |language=EN |volume=102 |issue=11 |pages=E2121–E2136 |doi=10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0138.1 |bibcode=2021BAMS..102E2121P |s2cid=237750279 |issn=0003-0007|doi-access=free }}</ref><ref>{{Cite web |date=November 14, 2022 |title=Workshop on Use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) for Operational Meteorology |url=https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=9951 |url-status=live |access-date=November 14, 2022 |website=World Meteorological Organization}}</ref> | ||
[[File:2005-09-22-10PM CDT Hurricane Rita 3 day path.png|thumb|Modern weather predictions aid in timely evacuations and potentially save lives and prevent property damage]] | [[File:2005-09-22-10PM CDT Hurricane Rita 3 day path.png|thumb|Modern weather predictions aid in timely evacuations and potentially save lives and prevent property damage]] | ||
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===Use of a barometer=== | ===Use of a barometer=== | ||
Measurements of barometric pressure and the pressure tendency (the change of pressure over time) have been used in forecasting since the late 19th century.<ref>[[USA Today]]. [https://www.usatoday.com/weather/wbarocx.htm "Understanding air pressure"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120701185551/https://www.usatoday.com/weather/wbarocx.htm |date=July 1, 2012 }}. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> The larger the change in pressure, especially if more than {{convert|3.5|hPa|mmHg|lk=on|abbr=on}}, the larger the change in weather can be expected. If the pressure drop is rapid, a [[Low pressure area|low pressure system]] is approaching, and there is a greater chance of rain. [[High pressure area|Rapid pressure rises]] are associated with improving weather conditions, such as clearing skies.<ref>Weather Doctor. [http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/eyes/barometer3.htm "Applying The Barometer To Weather Watching"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> | Measurements of barometric pressure and the pressure tendency (the change of pressure over time) have been used in forecasting since the late 19th century.<ref>[[USA Today]]. [https://www.usatoday.com/weather/wbarocx.htm "Understanding air pressure"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120701185551/https://www.usatoday.com/weather/wbarocx.htm|date=July 1, 2012}}. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> The larger the change in pressure, especially if more than {{convert|3.5|hPa|mmHg|lk=on|abbr=on}}, the larger the change in weather can be expected. If the pressure drop is rapid, a [[Low pressure area|low pressure system]] is approaching, and there is a greater chance of rain. [[High pressure area|Rapid pressure rises]] are associated with improving weather conditions, such as clearing skies.<ref>Weather Doctor. [http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/eyes/barometer3.htm "Applying The Barometer To Weather Watching"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> | ||
===Looking at the sky=== | ===Looking at the sky=== | ||
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===Use of forecast models=== | ===Use of forecast models=== | ||
[[File:NAM 500 MB.PNG|thumb|An example of 500 [[millibar|mbar]] [[geopotential height]] prediction from a numerical weather prediction model]] | [[File:NAM 500 MB.PNG|thumb|An example of 500 [[millibar|mbar]] [[geopotential height]] prediction from a numerical weather prediction model]] | ||
In the past, the human forecaster was responsible for generating the entire weather forecast based upon available observations.<ref>[[NASA]]. [http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/WxForecasting/wx2.html "Weather Forecasting Through the Ages"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050910210732/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/WxForecasting/wx2.html |date=September 10, 2005 }}. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> Today, human input is generally confined to choosing a model based on various parameters, such as model biases and performance.<ref name="Klaus">Klaus Weickmann, Jeff Whitaker, Andres Roubicek and Catherine Smith (December 1, 2001). [http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/ "The Use of Ensemble Forecasts to Produce Improved Medium Range (3–15 days) Weather Forecasts"]. [[Climate Diagnostics Center]]. Retrieved February 16, 2007. {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090827021959/http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/ |date=August 27, 2009 }}</ref> Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members of the various models, can help reduce forecast error.<ref name="TBK">Todd Kimberlain (June 2007). [http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/TropicalTalk.ppt "TC Genesis, Track, and Intensity Forecating"]. PowerPoint. Retrieved July 21, 2007.</ref> However, regardless how small the average error becomes with any individual system, large errors within any particular piece of guidance are still possible on any given model run.<ref>Richard J. Pasch, Mike Fiorino, and [[Chris Landsea]]. [http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/NCEP-EMCModelReview2006/TPC-NCEP2006.ppt "TPC/NHC'S Review of the NCEP Production Suite for 2006"]. Retrieved May 5, 2008.{{dead link|date=October 2017}}</ref> Humans are required to interpret the model data into weather forecasts that are understandable to the end user. Humans can use knowledge of local effects that may be too small in size to be resolved by the model to add information to the forecast. While increasing accuracy of forecast models implies that humans may no longer be needed in the forecast process at some point in the future, there is currently still a need for human intervention.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Roebber |first1=P. J. |last2=Bosart |first2=L. F. |url=http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2512901 |title=The complex relationship between forecast skill and forecast value : A real-world analysis |journal=Weather and Forecasting |issn=0882-8156 |year=1996 |volume=11 |issue=4 |pages=544–559 |access-date=May 25, 2008|bibcode=1996WtFor..11..544R |doi=10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0544:TCRBFS>2.0.CO;2 |s2cid=15191426 |doi-access=free }}</ref> | In the past, the human forecaster was responsible for generating the entire weather forecast based upon available observations.<ref>[[NASA]]. [http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/WxForecasting/wx2.html "Weather Forecasting Through the Ages"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20050910210732/http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/WxForecasting/wx2.html|date=September 10, 2005}}. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> Today, human input is generally confined to choosing a model based on various parameters, such as model biases and performance.<ref name="Klaus">Klaus Weickmann, Jeff Whitaker, Andres Roubicek and Catherine Smith (December 1, 2001). [http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/ "The Use of Ensemble Forecasts to Produce Improved Medium Range (3–15 days) Weather Forecasts"]. [[Climate Diagnostics Center]]. Retrieved February 16, 2007. {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090827021959/http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/|date=August 27, 2009}}</ref> Using a consensus of forecast models, as well as ensemble members of the various models, can help reduce forecast error.<ref name="TBK">Todd Kimberlain (June 2007). [http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/TropicalTalk.ppt "TC Genesis, Track, and Intensity Forecating"]. PowerPoint. Retrieved July 21, 2007.</ref> However, regardless how small the average error becomes with any individual system, large errors within any particular piece of guidance are still possible on any given model run.<ref>Richard J. Pasch, Mike Fiorino, and [[Chris Landsea]]. [http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/NCEP-EMCModelReview2006/TPC-NCEP2006.ppt "TPC/NHC'S Review of the NCEP Production Suite for 2006"]. Retrieved May 5, 2008.{{dead link|date=October 2017}}</ref> Humans are required to interpret the model data into weather forecasts that are understandable to the end user. Humans can use knowledge of local effects that may be too small in size to be resolved by the model to add information to the forecast. While increasing accuracy of forecast models implies that humans may no longer be needed in the forecast process at some point in the future, there is currently still a need for human intervention.<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Roebber |first1=P. J. |last2=Bosart |first2=L. F. |url=http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=2512901 |title=The complex relationship between forecast skill and forecast value : A real-world analysis |journal=Weather and Forecasting |issn=0882-8156 |year=1996 |volume=11 |issue=4 |pages=544–559 |access-date=May 25, 2008|bibcode=1996WtFor..11..544R |doi=10.1175/1520-0434(1996)011<0544:TCRBFS>2.0.CO;2 |s2cid=15191426 |doi-access=free }}</ref> | ||
===Analog technique=== | ===Analog technique=== | ||
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===Severe weather alerts and advisories=== | ===Severe weather alerts and advisories=== | ||
A major part of modern weather forecasting is the severe weather alerts and advisories that the national weather services issue in the case that severe or hazardous weather is expected. This is done to protect life and property.<ref>[[National Weather Service]]. [http://www.weather.gov/mission.shtml National Weather Service Mission Statement]. Retrieved May 25, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131124214601/http://www.weather.gov/mission.shtml |date=November 24, 2013 }}</ref> Some of the most commonly known of severe weather advisories are the [[Severe thunderstorm warning|severe thunderstorm]] and [[tornado warning]], as well as the [[Severe thunderstorm watch|severe thunderstorm]] and [[tornado watch]]. Other forms of these advisories include winter weather, high wind, [[Flood warning|flood]], [[tropical cyclone]], and fog.<ref>[[Environment Canada]]. [http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/cd/brochures/warning_e.cfm? "Weather watches, warnings and advisories"]. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060703204148/http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/cd/brochures/warning_e.cfm |date=July 3, 2006 }} Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> Severe weather advisories and alerts are broadcast through the media, including radio, using emergency systems as the [[Emergency Alert System]], which break into regular programming.<ref>[[Federal Communications Commission]]. [https://www.fcc.gov/general/emergency-alert-system-eas "Emergency Alert System"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> | A major part of modern weather forecasting is the severe weather alerts and advisories that the national weather services issue in the case that severe or hazardous weather is expected. This is done to protect life and property.<ref>[[National Weather Service]]. [http://www.weather.gov/mission.shtml National Weather Service Mission Statement]. Retrieved May 25, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20131124214601/http://www.weather.gov/mission.shtml|date=November 24, 2013}}</ref> Some of the most commonly known of severe weather advisories are the [[Severe thunderstorm warning|severe thunderstorm]] and [[tornado warning]], as well as the [[Severe thunderstorm watch|severe thunderstorm]] and [[tornado watch]]. Other forms of these advisories include winter weather, high wind, [[Flood warning|flood]], [[tropical cyclone]], and fog.<ref>[[Environment Canada]]. [http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/cd/brochures/warning_e.cfm? "Weather watches, warnings and advisories"]. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20060703204148/http://www.msc-smc.ec.gc.ca/cd/brochures/warning_e.cfm|date=July 3, 2006}} Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> Severe weather advisories and alerts are broadcast through the media, including radio, using emergency systems as the [[Emergency Alert System]], which break into regular programming.<ref>[[Federal Communications Commission]]. [https://www.fcc.gov/general/emergency-alert-system-eas "Emergency Alert System"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> | ||
===Low temperature forecast=== | ===Low temperature forecast=== | ||
The low temperature forecast for the current day is calculated using the lowest temperature found between 7{{nbsp}}pm that evening through 7{{nbsp}}am the following morning.<ref>[[Weather Channel]] – [http://feedback.weather.com/knowledgebase/articles/32098-weather-com-is-the-low-before-or-after-the-high Calculation of Low Temperature Forecast] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150906012055/http://feedback.weather.com/knowledgebase/articles/32098-weather-com-is-the-low-before-or-after-the-high |date=September 6, 2015 }}</ref> So, in short, today's forecasted low is most likely tomorrow's low temperature. | The low temperature forecast for the current day is calculated using the lowest temperature found between 7{{nbsp}}pm that evening through 7{{nbsp}}am the following morning.<ref>[[Weather Channel]] – [http://feedback.weather.com/knowledgebase/articles/32098-weather-com-is-the-low-before-or-after-the-high Calculation of Low Temperature Forecast] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20150906012055/http://feedback.weather.com/knowledgebase/articles/32098-weather-com-is-the-low-before-or-after-the-high|date=September 6, 2015}}</ref> So, in short, today's forecasted low is most likely tomorrow's low temperature. | ||
== Specialist forecasting == | == Specialist forecasting == | ||
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[[File:Plume from eruption of Chaiten volcano, Chile.jpg|thumb|right|Ash cloud from the 2008 eruption of [[Chaitén (volcano)|Chaitén volcano]] stretching across [[Patagonia]] from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean]] | [[File:Plume from eruption of Chaiten volcano, Chile.jpg|thumb|right|Ash cloud from the 2008 eruption of [[Chaitén (volcano)|Chaitén volcano]] stretching across [[Patagonia]] from the Pacific to the Atlantic Ocean]] | ||
{{See also|Terminal aerodrome forecast}} | {{See also|Terminal aerodrome forecast}} | ||
Because the aviation industry is especially sensitive to the weather, accurate weather forecasting is essential. Fog or exceptionally low [[ceiling (cloud)|ceilings]] can prevent many aircraft from landing and taking off.<ref>[[United States Government Publishing Office|Government Printing Office]]. [http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr;sid=199eb678c4c22b4202e5809c99045c7c;rgn=div7;view=text;node=14%3A2.0.1.3.10.2.5;idno=14;cc=ecfr Title 14: "Aeronautics and Space"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110613085006/http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr;sid=199eb678c4c22b4202e5809c99045c7c;rgn=div7;view=text;node=14:2.0.1.3.10.2.5;idno=14;cc=ecfr |date=June 13, 2011 }}</ref> [[Turbulence]] and [[Atmospheric icing|icing]] are also significant in-flight hazards.<ref>Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association. [http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/sa11.pdf "Aircraft Icing"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070202074833/http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/sa11.pdf |date=February 2, 2007 }}</ref> Thunderstorms are a problem for all aircraft because of severe turbulence due to their [[Vertical draft|updrafts]] and [[Outflow boundary|outflow boundaries]],<ref>[[National Weather Service]] Forecast Office Dodge City, Kansas. [http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/research/bore/HPCtalk.ppt "Aviation Hazards They Didn't Tell You About"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910142824/http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/research/bore/HPCtalk.ppt |date=September 10, 2008 }}</ref> icing due to the heavy precipitation, as well as large [[hail]], strong winds, and lightning, all of which can cause severe damage to an aircraft in flight.<ref>[[Bureau of Meteorology]] (2006). [http://www.caem.wmo.int/_pdf/thunderstorms/thunderstorms_02_effects.pdf "Aviation Hazards: Thunderstorms and Deep Convection"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910142826/http://www.caem.wmo.int/_pdf/thunderstorms/thunderstorms_02_effects.pdf |date=September 10, 2008 }}. Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> [[Volcanic ash]] is also a significant problem for aviation, as aircraft can lose engine power within ash clouds.<ref>[http://www.usgs.gov/tech-transfer/factsheets/7.html "Volcanic Ash Aviation Hazard"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080621085505/http://www.usgs.gov/tech-transfer/factsheets/7.html |date=June 21, 2008 }}</ref> On a day-to-day basis airliners are routed to take advantage of the [[jet stream]] tailwind to improve fuel efficiency.<ref>Ned Rozell. [http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF17/1727.html "Amazing flying machines allow time travel"]. Retrieved May 8, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080605031147/http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF17/1727.html |date=June 5, 2008 }}</ref> Aircrews are briefed prior to [[takeoff]] on the conditions to expect en route and at their destination.<ref>[[National Weather Service]]. [http://www.weather.gov/om/brochures/pilot.htm "A Pilot's Guide to Aviation Weather Services"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080624042742/http://www.weather.gov/om/brochures/pilot.htm |date=June 24, 2008 }}</ref> Additionally, airports often change which [[runway]] is being used to take advantage of a [[headwind]]. This reduces the distance required for takeoff, and eliminates potential [[crosswind]]s.<ref>Eric C. King. [http://takeofftools.com/Documents/Crosswind%20Calculator%20Instructions.pdf "Takeoff Tools Crosswind Calculator Instructions"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910142826/http://takeofftools.com/Documents/Crosswind%20Calculator%20Instructions.pdf |date=September 10, 2008 }}</ref> | Because the aviation industry is especially sensitive to the weather, accurate weather forecasting is essential. Fog or exceptionally low [[ceiling (cloud)|ceilings]] can prevent many aircraft from landing and taking off.<ref>[[United States Government Publishing Office|Government Printing Office]]. [http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr;sid=199eb678c4c22b4202e5809c99045c7c;rgn=div7;view=text;node=14%3A2.0.1.3.10.2.5;idno=14;cc=ecfr Title 14: "Aeronautics and Space"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20110613085006/http://ecfr.gpoaccess.gov/cgi/t/text/text-idx?c=ecfr;sid=199eb678c4c22b4202e5809c99045c7c;rgn=div7;view=text;node=14:2.0.1.3.10.2.5;idno=14;cc=ecfr|date=June 13, 2011}}</ref> [[Turbulence]] and [[Atmospheric icing|icing]] are also significant in-flight hazards.<ref>Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association. [http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/sa11.pdf "Aircraft Icing"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20070202074833/http://www.aopa.org/asf/publications/sa11.pdf |date=February 2, 2007 }}</ref> Thunderstorms are a problem for all aircraft because of severe turbulence due to their [[Vertical draft|updrafts]] and [[Outflow boundary|outflow boundaries]],<ref>[[National Weather Service]] Forecast Office Dodge City, Kansas. [http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/research/bore/HPCtalk.ppt "Aviation Hazards They Didn't Tell You About"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910142824/http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ddc/research/bore/HPCtalk.ppt|date=September 10, 2008}}</ref> icing due to the heavy precipitation, as well as large [[hail]], strong winds, and lightning, all of which can cause severe damage to an aircraft in flight.<ref>[[Bureau of Meteorology]] (2006). [http://www.caem.wmo.int/_pdf/thunderstorms/thunderstorms_02_effects.pdf "Aviation Hazards: Thunderstorms and Deep Convection"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910142826/http://www.caem.wmo.int/_pdf/thunderstorms/thunderstorms_02_effects.pdf|date=September 10, 2008}}. Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> [[Volcanic ash]] is also a significant problem for aviation, as aircraft can lose engine power within ash clouds.<ref>[http://www.usgs.gov/tech-transfer/factsheets/7.html "Volcanic Ash Aviation Hazard"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080621085505/http://www.usgs.gov/tech-transfer/factsheets/7.html |date=June 21, 2008 }}</ref> On a day-to-day basis airliners are routed to take advantage of the [[jet stream]] tailwind to improve fuel efficiency.<ref>Ned Rozell. [http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF17/1727.html "Amazing flying machines allow time travel"]. Retrieved May 8, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080605031147/http://www.gi.alaska.edu/ScienceForum/ASF17/1727.html |date=June 5, 2008 }}</ref> Aircrews are briefed prior to [[takeoff]] on the conditions to expect en route and at their destination.<ref>[[National Weather Service]]. [http://www.weather.gov/om/brochures/pilot.htm "A Pilot's Guide to Aviation Weather Services"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080624042742/http://www.weather.gov/om/brochures/pilot.htm|date=June 24, 2008}}</ref> Additionally, airports often change which [[runway]] is being used to take advantage of a [[headwind]]. This reduces the distance required for takeoff, and eliminates potential [[crosswind]]s.<ref>Eric C. King. [http://takeofftools.com/Documents/Crosswind%20Calculator%20Instructions.pdf "Takeoff Tools Crosswind Calculator Instructions"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910142826/http://takeofftools.com/Documents/Crosswind%20Calculator%20Instructions.pdf |date=September 10, 2008 }}</ref> | ||
===Marine=== | ===Marine=== | ||
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[[File:Air handling unit.JPG|thumb|right|An [[air handling unit]] is used for the heating and cooling of air in a central location (click on image for legend).]] | [[File:Air handling unit.JPG|thumb|right|An [[air handling unit]] is used for the heating and cooling of air in a central location (click on image for legend).]] | ||
{{Main|Degree day}} | {{Main|Degree day}} | ||
Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand, which can be strongly affected by the weather. They use the quantity termed the degree day to determine how strong of a use there will be for heating ([[heating degree day]]) or cooling (cooling degree day). These quantities are based on a daily average temperature of {{convert|65|F}}. Cooler temperatures force heating degree days (one per degree Fahrenheit), while warmer temperatures force cooling degree days.<ref>[[Climate Prediction Center]]. [http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/ddayexp.shtml "Degree Day Explanation"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100524040629/http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/ddayexp.shtml |date=May 24, 2010 }}. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> In winter, severe cold weather can cause a surge in demand as people turn up their heating.<ref>{{cite news |date=February 26, 1993 |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/26/business/futures-options-cold-weather-brings-surge-in-prices-of-heating-fuels.html |title=Futures/Options; Cold Weather Brings Surge in Prices of Heating Fuels |access-date=May 25, 2008}}</ref> Similarly, in summer a surge in demand can be linked with the increased use of [[air conditioning]] systems in hot weather.<ref>[[BBC News]] (July 25, 2006) [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/5212724.stm "Heatwave causes electricity surge"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> By anticipating a surge in demand, utility companies can purchase additional supplies of power or natural gas before the price increases, or in some circumstances, supplies are restricted through the use of [[Brownout (electricity)|brownouts]] and [[Power outage|blackouts]].<ref>Toronto Catholic Schools. [http://www.tcdsb.org/environment/energydrill/EDSP_KeyMessages_FINAL.pdf "The Seven Key Messages of the Energy Drill Program"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120217042744/http://www.tcdsb.org/environment/energydrill/EDSP_KeyMessages_FINAL.pdf |date=February 17, 2012 }}</ref> | Electricity and gas companies rely on weather forecasts to anticipate demand, which can be strongly affected by the weather. They use the quantity termed the degree day to determine how strong of a use there will be for heating ([[heating degree day]]) or cooling (cooling degree day). These quantities are based on a daily average temperature of {{convert|65|F}}. Cooler temperatures force heating degree days (one per degree Fahrenheit), while warmer temperatures force cooling degree days.<ref>[[Climate Prediction Center]]. [http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/ddayexp.shtml "Degree Day Explanation"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20100524040629/http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/ddayexp.shtml|date=May 24, 2010}}. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> In winter, severe cold weather can cause a surge in demand as people turn up their heating.<ref>{{cite news |date=February 26, 1993 |newspaper=[[The New York Times]] |url=https://www.nytimes.com/1993/02/26/business/futures-options-cold-weather-brings-surge-in-prices-of-heating-fuels.html |title=Futures/Options; Cold Weather Brings Surge in Prices of Heating Fuels |access-date=May 25, 2008}}</ref> Similarly, in summer a surge in demand can be linked with the increased use of [[air conditioning]] systems in hot weather.<ref>[[BBC News]] (July 25, 2006) [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/5212724.stm "Heatwave causes electricity surge"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008.</ref> By anticipating a surge in demand, utility companies can purchase additional supplies of power or natural gas before the price increases, or in some circumstances, supplies are restricted through the use of [[Brownout (electricity)|brownouts]] and [[Power outage|blackouts]].<ref>Toronto Catholic Schools. [http://www.tcdsb.org/environment/energydrill/EDSP_KeyMessages_FINAL.pdf "The Seven Key Messages of the Energy Drill Program"]. Retrieved May 25, 2008. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20120217042744/http://www.tcdsb.org/environment/energydrill/EDSP_KeyMessages_FINAL.pdf |date=February 17, 2012 }}</ref> | ||
===Other commercial companies=== | ===Other commercial companies=== | ||
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====Royal Air Force==== | ====Royal Air Force==== | ||
A mobile unit in the [[RAF]], working with the UK Met Office, forecasts the weather for regions in which British, allied servicemen and women are deployed. A group based at [[Camp Bastion]] provides forecasts for the British armed forces in [[Afghanistan]].<ref>[[Met Office]]. [https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/weather-forecasting-for-military-operations "Weather forecasting for military operations"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171012094709/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/weather-forecasting-for-military-operations |date=October 12, 2017 }}. Retrieved October 23, 2012.</ref> | A mobile unit in the [[RAF]], working with the UK Met Office, forecasts the weather for regions in which British, allied servicemen and women are deployed. A group based at [[Camp Bastion]] provides forecasts for the British armed forces in [[Afghanistan]].<ref>[[Met Office]]. [https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/weather-forecasting-for-military-operations "Weather forecasting for military operations"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20171012094709/https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/weather-forecasting-for-military-operations|date=October 12, 2017}}. Retrieved October 23, 2012.</ref> | ||
====United States Armed Forces==== | ====United States Armed Forces==== | ||
====US Navy==== | ====US Navy==== | ||
[[File:Npmoc.gif|thumb|right|Emblem of JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center]] | [[File:Npmoc.gif|thumb|right|Emblem of JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center]] | ||
Similar to the private sector, military weather forecasters present weather conditions to the war fighter community. Military weather forecasters provide pre-flight and in-flight weather briefs to pilots and provide real time resource protection services for military installations. Naval forecasters cover the waters and ship weather forecasts. The [[United States Navy]] provides a special service to both themselves and the rest of the federal government by issuing forecasts for tropical cyclones across the Pacific and Indian Oceans through their [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]].<ref>[[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]. [http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/menu/JTWC_mission.html "Joint Typhoon Warning Center Mission Statement"]. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080409133140/http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/menu/JTWC_mission.html |date=April 9, 2008 }} Retrieved May 27, 2008.</ref> | Similar to the private sector, military weather forecasters present weather conditions to the war fighter community. Military weather forecasters provide pre-flight and in-flight weather briefs to pilots and provide real time resource protection services for military installations. Naval forecasters cover the waters and ship weather forecasts. The [[United States Navy]] provides a special service to both themselves and the rest of the federal government by issuing forecasts for tropical cyclones across the Pacific and Indian Oceans through their [[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]].<ref>[[Joint Typhoon Warning Center]]. [http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/menu/JTWC_mission.html "Joint Typhoon Warning Center Mission Statement"]. {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080409133140/http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/menu/JTWC_mission.html|date=April 9, 2008}} Retrieved May 27, 2008.</ref> | ||
====US Air Force==== | ====US Air Force==== | ||
Within the United States, Air Force Weather provides weather forecasting for the Air Force and the Army. [[United States Air Force|Air Force]] forecasters cover air operations in both wartime and peacetime operations and provide [[United States Army|Army]] support;<ref>[[United States Air Force]].[https://web.archive.org/web/20070714070133/http://www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?fsID=157 "Air Force Weather Agency"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> [[United States Coast Guard]] marine science technicians provide ship forecasts for ice breakers and other various operations within their realm;<ref>[[United States Military]]. [https://www.usmilitary.com/coastguardenlistedoccupations.html#engineeringscienceandtechnical "US Coast Guard Jobs – Enlisted Occupations"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160312201542/http://www.usmilitary.com/coastguardenlistedoccupations.html#engineeringscienceandtechnical |date=March 12, 2016 }}. Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> and Marine forecasters provide support for ground- and air-based [[United States Marine Corps]] operations.<ref>Rod Powers. [https://www.thebalance.com/field-meteorology-oceanography-3345698 "United States Marine Corps Enlisted Job Descriptions and Qualification Factors: Field 68 – Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC)"]. Retrieved 2008-05-26.<!-- as of October 11, 2017, Updated August 13, 2016--></ref> All four military branches take their initial enlisted meteorology technical training at [[Keesler Air Force Base]].<ref>[[Keesler Air Force Base]]. Military officers usually received their education from a civilian institution. [http://www.keesler.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-061113-086.pdf "Keesler News: March 9, 2006"] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910142826/http://www.keesler.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-061113-086.pdf |date=September 10, 2008 }}. [[United States Air Force]] Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> Military and civilian forecasters actively cooperate in analyzing, creating and critiquing weather forecast products. | Within the United States, Air Force Weather provides weather forecasting for the Air Force and the Army. [[United States Air Force|Air Force]] forecasters cover air operations in both wartime and peacetime operations and provide [[United States Army|Army]] support;<ref>[[United States Air Force]].[https://web.archive.org/web/20070714070133/http://www.af.mil/factsheets/factsheet.asp?fsID=157 "Air Force Weather Agency"]. Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> [[United States Coast Guard]] marine science technicians provide ship forecasts for ice breakers and other various operations within their realm;<ref>[[United States Military]]. [https://www.usmilitary.com/coastguardenlistedoccupations.html#engineeringscienceandtechnical "US Coast Guard Jobs – Enlisted Occupations"] {{Webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20160312201542/http://www.usmilitary.com/coastguardenlistedoccupations.html#engineeringscienceandtechnical|date=March 12, 2016}}. Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> and Marine forecasters provide support for ground- and air-based [[United States Marine Corps]] operations.<ref>Rod Powers. [https://www.thebalance.com/field-meteorology-oceanography-3345698 "United States Marine Corps Enlisted Job Descriptions and Qualification Factors: Field 68 – Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC)"]. Retrieved 2008-05-26.<!-- as of October 11, 2017, Updated August 13, 2016--></ref> All four military branches take their initial enlisted meteorology technical training at [[Keesler Air Force Base]].<ref>[[Keesler Air Force Base]]. Military officers usually received their education from a civilian institution. [http://www.keesler.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-061113-086.pdf "Keesler News: March 9, 2006"] {{webarchive|url=https://web.archive.org/web/20080910142826/http://www.keesler.af.mil/shared/media/document/AFD-061113-086.pdf|date=September 10, 2008}}. [[United States Air Force]] Retrieved May 26, 2008.</ref> Military and civilian forecasters actively cooperate in analyzing, creating and critiquing weather forecast products. | ||
==See also== | ==See also== | ||
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[[Category:Weather prediction|*]] | [[Category:Weather prediction|*]] | ||
[[Category:Sky]] | [[Category:Sky]] | ||
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