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=Regulations (not including taxes)= | =Regulations (not including taxes)= | ||
2023: [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37452656/ Impacts of EU Tobacco Products Directive regulations on use of e-cigarettes in adolescents in Great Britain: a natural experiment evaluation.] | |||
* Moore G, Hallingberg B, Brown R, McKell J, Van Godwin J, Bauld L, Gray L, Maynard O, Mackintosh AM, Munafò M, Blackwell A, Lowthian E, Page N. Public Health Res (Southampt). 2023 Jun;11(5):1-102. doi: 10.3310/WTMH3198. PMID: 37452656 | |||
* A report on the impacts of the EU Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) on youth e-cigarette use in Great Britain, with special focus on testing the renormalization hypothesis (a specific version of ‘gateway’ in which the effect is hypothesized to occur through the mechanism of social norms). This report examines national survey data of youth (aged 13-15) from England, Scotland, and Wales, using an interrupted time series analysis of TPD regulations. | |||
** '''''Results:''''' ''Ever smoking continued to decline alongside the emergence of e-cigarettes, with a slight slowing in decline for regular use… Young people described e-cigarettes as a fad and indicated limited interaction with components of the [TPD] regulations. In primary statistical analyses in Wales, growth in ever use of e-cigarettes prior to [TPD] regulations did not continue after implementation… Data from England and Scotland exhibited a similar pattern. Smoking followed the opposite pattern, declining prior to the [TPD] regulations, but plateauing as growth in e-cigarette use stalled.'' | |||
* Once again, these data show an inverse relationship between e-cigarette use and cigarette smoking trends, suggesting substitution. Whether or not TPD regulations causally stopped the increase in e-cigarette use is still unresolved to me (i.e., it’s also possible that it was truly a social fad that to some extent burned out on its own). However, this report shows that if the decline in e-cigarette use can be attributed to TPD, then one must face the uncomfortable conclusion that it also stopped the decline in cigarette smoking. | |||
* Regarding the renormalization hypothesis, this is not supported by the data: the proportion of youth who agree with the statements “trying smoking is OK” and “smoking regularly is OK” declined substantially over the time period when e-cigarette use was increasing, which is what the opposite of what the renormalization hypothesis would predict (much like the population-level smoking trends contradict what the gateway hypothesis would predict). This follows other informative work by Britt Hallingberg and colleagues (e.g. here) that also tests – and fails to support – the renormalization hypothesis (which is often assumed by its proponents without citing empirical evidence). | |||
=== 2023: [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37161460/ The impact of JUUL market entry on cigarette sales: evidence from a major chain retailer in Canada.] === | === 2023: [https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/37161460/ The impact of JUUL market entry on cigarette sales: evidence from a major chain retailer in Canada.] === | ||
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