Myth: Alternative nicotine products are a gateway to smoking

Explaining the Gateway Hypothesis

Papers

2024: The “Gateway” hypothesis: evaluation of evidence and alternative explanations

• Conclusion: "Evidence offered in support of the gateway hypothesis does not establish that ENDS use causes youth to also smoke cigarettes. Instead, this evidence is better interpreted as resulting from a common liability to use both ENDS and cigarettes. Population-level trends are inconsistent with the gateway hypothesis, and instead are consistent with (but do not prove) ENDS displacing cigarettes. Policies based on misinterpreting a causal gateway effect may be ineffective at best, and risk the negative unintended consequence of increased cigarette smoking."
  • Citation: Selya, A. The “Gateway” hypothesis: evaluation of evidence and alternative explanations. Harm Reduct J 21, 113 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1186/s12954-024-01034-6
    • Acknowledgment: The author thanks Joe Gitchell, Sooyong Kim, and Saul Shiffman, all of Pinney Associates, Inc. for their feedback on an early draft of this manuscript, and Floe Foxon and Sooyong Kim for assistance with manuscript formatting. Through Pinney Associates, Inc., AS provides consulting services on tobacco harm reduction to Juul Labs, Inc. (JLI). JLI partially supported the preparation of this manuscript, and reviewed and commented on a near-final version. After the initial submission of this manuscript, AS also began individually providing consulting services on behavioral science to the Center of Excellence for the Acceleration of Harm Reduction (CoEHAR) through ECLAT Srl, which received funding from the Foundation for a Smoke-Free World (FSFW). Neither CoEHAR nor FSFW had any role in, or oversight of, this commentary.

Vaping Up < - > Smoking Down

Papers

2024: Increased e-cigarette use prevalence is associated with decreased smoking prevalence among US adults

• Nationally representative population-level data on tobacco product use by US adults continue to support the existence of an association between increasing prevalence of e-cigarette use and decreasing prevalence of cigarette smoking, i.e., possible substitution between cigarettes and e-cigarettes.
  • Citation: Foxon F, Selya A, Gitchell J, Shiffman S. Increased e-cigarette use prevalence is associated with decreased smoking prevalence among US adults. Harm Reduct J. 2024 Jul 18;21(1):136. doi: 10.1186/s12954-024-01056-0. PMID: 39026245; PMCID: PMC11256395.
    • Acknowledgment: Through PinneyAssociates, FF, AS, JG, and SS provide consulting services on tobacco harm reduction on an exclusive basis to Juul Labs Inc. The preparation of the previously-published version of this manuscript was funded by JLI, who reviewed and provided comments on a draft manuscript of the previously-published version. The present, updated version did not receive any funding or review from JLI, and was self-funded by PinneyAssociates. The content and the decision to publish are the responsibility of the authors. JG and SS also own interest in a novel nicotine gum that has neither been developed nor commercialized.