Myth Busting: Difference between revisions

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==To Do list==

To do:

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This links to several examples: [https://veritasvincitprolibertate.wordpress.com/2020/08/12/vaping-youth-and-covid-19-and-science-by-press-release/ VapingYouth and Covid-19 and Science by Press Release]

'''ERRATUM! ERRATUM! ''''''ERRATUM! ERRATUM!'''

The authors of a notoriously influential study led by David Hammond explain how they got a massively sensitive claim about teen smoking and vaping in Canada totally wrong. Of course, they do not advertise the massive blunder in PubMed or the BMJ ''erratum'' and you have to go to the[https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/suppl/2020/07/10/bmj.m2579.DC1/correction1798.ww.pdf ][https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/suppl/2020/07/10/bmj.m2579.DC1/correction1798.ww.pdf Supplementarydata] to find it.

''In the original paper in The BMJ, changes in past 30 day smoking prevalence between 2017 and 2018 in Canada were reported as 10.7% to 15.5% (a statistically significant increase), which was revised after reweighting to 10.7% to 10.0% (no significant change). ''

Yes... instead of a huge 45% uptick in smoking, there was in fact a modest fall of almost 7% once the numbers were redone. So not just the magnitude but the sign was wrong.

It's hard to overstate the damage that this paper did in Canada - for the first time we'd seen (or so it appeared) both an increase in youth vaping ''and'' smoking. The paper was unscrupulously flashed around decision-makers for months before publication and used to reverse an emerging progressive position on vaping in Canada. Some 6 months before publication, the data was trailed on the national broadcaster, CBC... [https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/health-canada-youth-teenage-vaping-smoking-hammond-1.4937593 Teenvaping in Canada has taken a 'worrisome' turn] on 18 Dec 2018.

''"All signs are very worrisome." And even more disturbing — cigarette smoking in teenagers appeared to be rising for the first time in 30 years. "There are also troubling findings on smoking rates and signs that progress in reducing youth smoking may have stalled," [lead author David Hammond] said, adding that there's a need for more research to confirm his results.''

Hopefully, he'll go back to CBC and admit the error? Though, happily, at least one thing subsequently went right...

''"We all want these findings not to be true."''

At least they have finally corrected it? Amazingly, they have changed the data in an obscure supplement but left the false conclusion standing in the main paper:

'''''Conclusions''''''' Between 2017 and 2018, among 16 to 19 year olds the prevalence of '''''''vaping increased in Canada and the US, ''''''''''as did smoking in Canada''''''', with little change in England. The rapidly evolving vaping market and emergence of nicotine salt based products warrant close monitoring.''(emphasis added)

And why has it taken this long to correct this? If only someone had pointed out the conflict with official Canadian data and suggested re-examination... oh wait, they did. It was me! Just 3 weeks after publication, I sent in a BMJ rapid response: [https://www.bmj.com/content/365/bmj.l2219/rr-2 Increasesin smoking recorded in this study appear to conflict with officialCanadian data]

Too late, however, the error must be allowed to stand! From the data supplement:

''However, after publication of our paper, Health Canada released data from its national monitoring survey of youths, the Canadian Student Tobacco, Alcohol and Drugs Survey (CSTADS), which did not indicate an increase in smoking between 2016-172 and 2018-19.''

So instead of reexamining the data, the authors chose to ignore this conflict and leave the false conclusion on show in the

Also, of course the paper was gleefully cited by straw-clutching anti-vaping trolls:

''....and Canada, which, as shown in a paper co-authored by Borland, has seen not only a dramatic increase in youth vaping, but also the first increase in youth smoking in many years [14].''

''Chapman S, Daube M. Response to Mendelsohn, Borland and Hall’s ‘Could vaping help lower smoking rates in Australia?’ Vol. 39, Drug and Alcohol Review. Blackwell Publishing; 2020. p. 419–21. ''''[''[https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dar.13065 link]'']''

[https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32721197/ Theimpact of heated tobacco products on arterial stiffness.]Franzen KF, Belkin S, Goldmann T, Reppel M, Watz H, Mortensen K, Droemann D.Vasc Med. 2020 Jul 28:1358863X20943292. doi: 10.1177/1358863X20943292. Online ahead of print.PMID: 32721197 No abstract available.

This is well-travelled territory. Short term changes in arterial stiffness occur for many reasons, not necessarily as a marker of disease risk. Discussed[http://www.ecigarette-research.org/research/index.php/whats-new/2019/276-ecig-heart2 ][http://www.ecigarette-research.org/research/index.php/whats-new/2019/276-ecig-heart2 here] by Konstantinos Farsalinos and[https://www.clivebates.com/when-you-thought-public-health-could-go-no-lower-it-just-did/ ][https://www.clivebates.com/when-you-thought-public-health-could-go-no-lower-it-just-did/ here] by me (Clive Bates). And Peter Hajek[https://senseaboutscience.org/activities/response-to-stories-suggesting-that-vaping-is-as-bad-for-the-heart-as-cigarettes/ ][https://senseaboutscience.org/activities/response-to-stories-suggesting-that-vaping-is-as-bad-for-the-heart-as-cigarettes/ explains] an earlier study with similar findings“''The study is reporting on a well-known short-term effect of nicotine – stiffening of arteries – that accompanies all types of stimulation. The same effect is generated by watching a thriller or a football match or sitting an exam. Drinking a cup of coffee actually produces a larger response of much longer duration. The key heart health risks of smoking are not caused by nicotine but by other chemicals in tobacco smoke that are not present in e-cigarette vapour.”''

[https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012369220307546?dgcid=author VapingNicotine Is Far Less Harmful Than Smoking Tobacco]

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 ==To Do list==
 To do:
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-This links to several examples: [https://veritasvincitprolibertate.wordpress.com/2020/08/12/vaping-youth-and-covid-19-and-science-by-press-release/ VapingYouth and Covid-19 and Science by Press Release]
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"><span size="5" data-mce-style="font-size: x-large;" style="font-size: x-large;">'''ERRATUM! ERRATUM! '''</span></span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"><span size="5" data-mce-style="font-size: x-large;" style="font-size: x-large;">'''ERRATUM! ERRATUM!'''</span></span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">The authors of a notoriously influential study led by David Hammond explain how they got a massively sensitive claim about teen smoking and vaping in Canada totally wrong. Of course, they do not advertise the massive blunder in PubMed or the BMJ </span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">''erratum''</span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"> and you have to go to the[https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/suppl/2020/07/10/bmj.m2579.DC1/correction1798.ww.pdf ]</span></span>[https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/suppl/2020/07/10/bmj.m2579.DC1/correction1798.ww.pdf Supplementarydata]<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"> to find it.</span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">''In the original paper in The BMJ, changes in past 30 day smoking prevalence between 2017 and 2018 in Canada were reported as 10.7% to 15.5% (a statistically significant increase), which was revised after reweighting to 10.7% to 10.0% (no significant change). ''</span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">Yes... instead of a huge 45% uptick in smoking, there was in fact a modest fall of almost 7% once the numbers were redone. So not just the magnitude but the </span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"><u>sign</u></span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"> was wrong.</span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">It's hard to overstate the damage that this paper did in Canada - for the first time we'd seen (or so it appeared) both an increase in youth vaping </span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">''and''</span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"> smoking. The paper was unscrupulously flashed around decision-makers for months before publication and used to reverse an emerging progressive position on vaping in Canada. Some 6 months before publication, the data was trailed on the national broadcaster, CBC... </span></span>[https://www.cbc.ca/news/health/health-canada-youth-teenage-vaping-smoking-hammond-1.4937593 Teenvaping in Canada has taken a 'worrisome' turn]<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"> on 18 Dec 2018.</span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">''"All signs are very worrisome." And even more disturbing — cigarette smoking in teenagers appeared to be rising for the first time in 30 years. "There are also troubling findings on smoking rates and signs that progress in reducing youth smoking may have stalled," [lead author David Hammond] said, adding that there's a need for more research to confirm his results.''</span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">Hopefully, he'll go back to CBC and admit the error? Though, happily, at least one thing subsequently went right... </span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">''"We all want these findings not to be true."''</span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">At least they have finally corrected it? Amazingly, they have changed the data in an obscure supplement but left the false conclusion standing in the main paper: </span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">'''''Conclusions'''''</span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">'' Between 2017 and 2018, among 16 to 19 year olds the prevalence of ''</span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">'''''vaping increased in Canada and the US, '''''</span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">''<u>'''as did smoking in Canada'''</u>''</span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">'', with little change in England. The rapidly evolving vaping market and emergence of nicotine salt based products warrant close monitoring.''</span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">(emphasis added)</span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">And why has it taken this long to correct this? If only someone had pointed out the conflict with official Canadian data and suggested re-examination... oh wait, they did. It was me! Just 3 weeks after publication, I sent in a BMJ rapid response: </span></span>[https://www.bmj.com/content/365/bmj.l2219/rr-2 Increasesin smoking recorded in this study appear to conflict with officialCanadian data]
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">Too late, however, the error must be allowed to stand! From the data supplement: </span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">''However, after publication of our paper, Health Canada released data from its national monitoring survey of youths, the Canadian Student Tobacco, Alcohol and Drugs Survey (CSTADS), which did not indicate an increase in smoking between 2016-172 and 2018-19.''</span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">So instead of reexamining the data, the authors chose to ignore this conflict and leave the false conclusion on show in the </span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">Also, of course the paper was gleefully cited by straw-clutching anti-vaping trolls: </span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">''....and Canada, which, as shown in a paper co-authored by Borland, has seen not only a dramatic increase in youth vaping, but also the first increase in youth smoking in many years [14].''</span></span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;">''Chapman S, Daube M. Response to Mendelsohn, Borland and Hall’s ‘Could vaping help lower smoking rates in Australia?’ Vol. 39, Drug and Alcohol Review. Blackwell Publishing; 2020. p. 419–21. ''</span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">''[''</span></span>[https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/dar.13065 link]<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">'']''</span></span>
-[https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32721197/ Theimpact of heated tobacco products on arterial stiffness.]<span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">Franzen KF, Belkin S, Goldmann T, Reppel M, Watz H, Mortensen K, Droemann D.</span><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">Vasc Med. 2020 Jul 28:1358863X20943292. doi: 10.1177/1358863X20943292. Online ahead of print.</span><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">PMID: 32721197 No abstract available.</span>
-<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">This is well-travelled territory. Short term changes in arterial stiffness occur for many reasons, not necessarily as a marker of disease risk. Discussed[http://www.ecigarette-research.org/research/index.php/whats-new/2019/276-ecig-heart2 ]</span></span>[http://www.ecigarette-research.org/research/index.php/whats-new/2019/276-ecig-heart2 here]<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"> by Konstantinos Farsalinos and[https://www.clivebates.com/when-you-thought-public-health-could-go-no-lower-it-just-did/ ]</span></span>[https://www.clivebates.com/when-you-thought-public-health-could-go-no-lower-it-just-did/ here]<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"> by me (Clive Bates). And Peter Hajek[https://senseaboutscience.org/activities/response-to-stories-suggesting-that-vaping-is-as-bad-for-the-heart-as-cigarettes/ ]</span></span>[https://senseaboutscience.org/activities/response-to-stories-suggesting-that-vaping-is-as-bad-for-the-heart-as-cigarettes/ explains]<span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;"><span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;"> an earlier study with similar findings</span></span><span color="#990000" data-mce-style="color: #990000;" style="color: #990000;">“<span face="Verdana, serif" data-mce-style="font-family: Verdana, serif;" style="font-family: Verdana, serif;">''The study is reporting on a well-known short-term effect of nicotine – stiffening of arteries – that accompanies all types of stimulation. The same effect is generated by watching a thriller or a football match or sitting an exam. Drinking a cup of coffee actually produces a larger response of much longer duration. The key heart health risks of smoking are not caused by nicotine but by other chemicals in tobacco smoke that are not present in e-cigarette vapour.”''</span></span>
 [https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012369220307546?dgcid=author VapingNicotine Is Far Less Harmful Than Smoking Tobacco]

Myth Busting: Difference between revisions

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